Perhaps most of you are already familiar with the essence of betting odds. Anyway, the current article is aiming to explain in detail their meaning, variations, correlation with other betting entities. At first, do not think of them as something difficult to be understood, odds just present the probability of certain outcomes to happen. Nothing less, nothing more than that. Perceive them as probabilities, that is all. For instance, if Manchester United faces Norwich, and the odds for their win are set on 1.20, then the probability of their win is accessed at 83% (we will discuss later how to turn your decimals into probabilities). Betting odds show not only the chance for a certain outcome to happen but also the potential amount of money you are going to win. Let’s turn back to the Red Devils match against Norwich. In case you bet 100 EUR on their win, then you will get a net profit of only 20 EUR. You may say “Why should I risk 100 EUR to win only 1/5 of my stake?” In fact, you can easily estimate the potential revenues using the formula below –
*odds x stake – stake = net profit, or 1.20 x 100 EUR – 100 EUR = 120 EUR – 100 EUR = 20 EUR
Be aware that sometimes coefficients could be set lower or higher than expected as a precaution by the bookmakers. That is a wide-spread practice in football gambling, but in some cases, bookies have at their disposal information and stats long before they are reached by the ordinary bettors and tipsters. But usually, the fluctuations in odds aim to balance the market of a particular sports event.
How to properly understand the value of the coefficients?
As the team of Allfootballpredictions already described the essence of betting odds, in the following paragraph we are going to get a little deeper. The example with Manchester United best describes a sports event that engages immense media attention and potential bets. So, be sure that bookmakers will do all it takes to grab your money and to seduce you with attractive coefficients. One might say “What is wrong to bet on Man Utd?”. There is nothing wrong actually as the team currently is one of the most consistent in terms of performance and form in EPL. But take into consideration that you should evaluate some factors before placing your stake even on matches of 1.20:
- follow the current form – there are no many teams that can maintain a winning run of more than 5 wins in a row. If a particular team has already 7 wins and its name is not Man City or Liverpool, then perhaps it is high time for them to lose some points. That will not happen for sure but do not feel embarrassed when you lose a stake after betting on a team on a long winning row. The best scenario is to find a team that has just got into a winning form;
- low odds do not mean sure wins – as we mentioned, 1.20 does not mean that you are going to get a guaranteed profit. It is not that simple. You can find a match from a lesser-known league, where the winner of the hosts is estimated at 2.00. In case you evaluate their current form, absence of key players, H2H stats and everything is ok, then you may be sure that there is a high chance for profit here;
- the sustainable profit comes with experience – with the time you will gain invaluable knowledge about the fluctuations of odds, how to interpret them properly, and how to get an advantage of such information. Bookmakers are still human-beings, in many cases, not smarter than you. So, you can outplay them. Sustainable profit is a function of dedicated time and effort on behalf of you. Bigger is the effort, higher is the profit;
- find your value bet – perhaps you have heard of VB. It is an interesting expression in betting. You can get the best use of it when you already have some experience in the field of gambling. We are going to explain it in a simple way as a value bet is not our main topic in this article.
Think of your predictions always as probabilities. They are nothing else than that. If you already collect some information about a particular match, read some news and stats, you make your own picture about what is going to happen. Then you are able to set your own coefficients. Let’s say that you observed in detail everything in relation to Man Utd – Norwich match. You may probably have found that United are already in top 4 2 round before the end of the league and Norwich desperately needs some points to skip relegation. Then the win of United does not look so sure, doesn’t it? You may have found some information that Paul Pogba, Rashford, and Martial are rested for the upcoming match (usually bookies reach that information as soon as possible!). And then you come to the conclusion that you evaluate Man United’s win at no more than 60 % probability. When you turn it to decimals, the coefficient is 1.66!
How can I take advantage of that information?
It may be a risky strategy but it that scenario, considering the information you have already collected, perhaps it is not a bad idea to back the underdog (Norwich) some way. How? You can use the Asian Handicap line to give an artificial advantage to the guests (for example – Norwich +2.00 AH). If United struggles to win only by one goal (2-1), then you will record a good win thanks to your detailed observation. That is how value bet works. In the above-described example, you can say how bookmakers made a particular event (Man Utd – Norwich) attractive for bettors by offering coefficients of 1.20. After further evaluation, you see that actually it does not worth to bet on their win but instead back the underdog.
What are the types of odds?
Let’s see the types of odds below:
- fractional – these betting coefficients are most spread in England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland. Fractionals originated from horse racing and represent one of the oldest kinds of coefficients in betting. At first, they seem quite elaborate but in fact, they are easy to be estimated. Fractionals are represented in the following way “X/Y” – where “Y” is the amount of your stake, while “X” is your potential net profit. We are going to give a simple example. Let’s turn back once again to the United – Norwich game discussed above. The betting for United would be 1/5 represented as fractional. If you bet 5 EUR on United’s win, your potential win, excluding your stake will be 1 EUR (you can use higher stakes and replay the example once again). Be aware that 1/5, 3/10, 2/7 represent matches where we have a large favorite as it is the example with Manchester United. Let’s have a look at the possible odds for Norwich win displayed as fractionals. We do not pretend to offer objective figures, it is just a simple example to understand the meaning. A potential win for Norwich (the underdogs in the match) will be 9/1. That means that if you bet 100 EUR, you will record a net profit of 900 EUR. If you still face difficulties in understanding fractions, you may easily convert them into decimals. It is quite easy. For instance, 9/1 will be 10.00 in decimals. The formula is 9/1 +1 = 10. Let’s check the odds for United’s win as well –
1/5 +1 = 0.2+1 = 1.20;
- decimal – they are also known as Continental or European odds. Decimals are also used in Canada and New Zealand. They are far easier to be understood in comparison with fractionals. You may face difficulties to define which is higher 8/5 or 7/3. Or at least you will need some time to make calculations. Comparing 1.70 to 1.90 is more logical and you can easily see the bigger one. But we will repeat once again, do not think of odds as just numbers, they are probabilities. You can estimate your future revenues betting on decimals using the formula –
stake x odd – stake = net profit
Let’s use the example with United vs Norwich for further clarification. You bet 100 EUR on United’s win. Your net profit would be just 20 EUR.
100 EUR x 1.20 – 100 EUR = 120 EUR – 100 EUR = 20 EUR net profit
Your profit would be low and perhaps does not worth the risk because 1.01-1.20 represents the presence of a large favorite. The decimal odds for a large underdog would be 10.00 – 15.00 let’s say.
If you still feel not sure whether you understand decimals, you can easily turn them into probabilities using the formula –
Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds
1 / 1.20 = 0.83 x 100 = 83% probability;
- American – they are also known as money line or US odds. The odds for the stronger team are displayed with a minus (-) showing the amount you should stake to get 100 USD. The odds for underdogs are displayed with a positive (+) showing the amount won for every 100 USD bet. In both cases, you receive your stake adding to the net profit. For one last time, we are going to use the example with Manchester United and Norwich. The American odds for the game should look something similar to:
Man Utd -500
If you bet 100 USD on Norwich win, you can get a net profit of 900 USD. In order to win 100 USD placing a bet on United’s win, you will need to stake 500 USD. In this case, the bookmaker offered +900 for Norwich, indicating that the chance of their win is low (about 10%). One should risk 100 USD to get 900 USD. As we said, favorites are listed with a minus (-). In this case, the bookies state that United has a significant chance for a final win and thus place them -500 (83%). For more clarification, you can look at the chart below.
Why you need the help of a professional tipster?
You may think that you are going to cope with this wild world of betting but you may find yourself in a very difficult situation if you rely completely on your own skills. Unfortunately, the gambling world is full of scammers and frauds, and it is pretty likely to be skeptical about this idea. But let’s answer the question “Why should I trust football tipsters at all?”.
If you manage to find a reliable and especially such that could bring you sustainable profit in the long-term, then you will not need to search for answers as your bank account will be always positive. The difficult part is to find it. Googling “best football tipsters” does not work at all. You need to test their competence at first. Check their archives, ask for additional predictions, and summary for a particular match. You will easily find which tipster is good and which not. In case you find a tipster and his subscription fee is rather affordable, you may test his services. You may be sure that he is going to add 20-30% to the chance for a successful outcome of your predictions. You may rely that he is going to find the best value bets for you. You are not obliged to get a long-term subscription. You may attain some skills, knowledge, and experience from your collaboration. That’s why Allfootballpredictions recommends asking questions, to provide feedback and to discuss your matches and predictions with your tipster.